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Elon Musk launched TeraFab in late March 2026 with $20 billion in initial funding. The stated goal is to manufacture logic chips, memory, and advanced packaging all under one roof, an integrated chipmaking operation that no company on earth currently runs at scale. The $20 billion is a starting point. What Musk actually wants to build would cost 250 times that.Investment research firm Bernstein ran the numbers. To hit Musk's stated ambition of producing AI chips that consume one terawatt of power annually, TeraFab would need between 142 and 358 modern semiconductor fabs. The total price tag: approximately $5 trillion. For context, the entire US federal budget this year is around $7 trillion.What the math actually looks likeThe terawatt target is not a vague aspiration. Musk has said publicly he wants foundry partners, and now his own facilities, to produce hundreds of billions of AI chips per year. Bernstein translated that into wafer demand: roughly 22.4 million Rubin Ultra GPU wafers, 2.7 million Vera CPU wafers, and 15.8 million HBM4E memory wafers annually.A modern leading-edge logic fab produces around 20,000 wafer starts per month, or about 240,000 wafers per year. At 80% yield, hitting the GPU and CPU wafer targets alone would require approximately 126 logic fabs. Each 2nm-class fab costs between $25 billion and $35 billion to build. Logic capacity alone comes to somewhere around $3.15 to $3.78 trillion, before a single memory chip is made.Memory is a separate problem. HBM production requires DRAM fabs running at 100,000 to 200,000 wafer starts per month. Producing 15.8 million HBM wafers annually would need around 9 to 12 dedicated DRAM facilities at $20 billion each, adding roughly $240 billion to the bill. Then there is advanced packaging, the facilities that stack HBM onto processors using 2.5D and 3D integration. These run $2 to $3.5 billion per phase, and TeraFab would need tens to hundreds of them.Add land, R&amp;D, software infrastructure, and workforce, and the total exceeds $4 trillion by a wide margin. Bernstein's $5 trillion figure, while rough, is directionally conservative.To put $5 trillion in perspectiveNvidia's market cap as of early 2026 sits at around $4.34 trillion. Apple is at $3.71 trillion. Alphabet is at $3.5 trillion. Musk would need to mobilize capital exceeding the value of the world's most valuable company to build what he is describing. Even if the US government wanted to fund it entirely, doing so would consume more than 70% of its annual budget in a single appropriation.TSMC, the world's most advanced chipmaker, shipped 15 million 300mm-equivalent wafers across all its process nodes in all of 2025. It took the company over two decades and roughly 50 fab modules to reach that capacity. TeraFab is proposing to build more than twice that output, from scratch, on an unspecified timeline.The constraints that money cannot solveEven setting aside the financing problem, which is itself probably insurmountable for a private venture, there are hard physical limits that $5 trillion cannot simply override.ASML, the Dutch company that makes the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines required for cutting-edge chip production, ships roughly 50 to 60 EUV machines per year globally. Every major chipmaker is already competing for that allocation. A buildout of 100-plus leading-edge fabs would require hundreds of EUV machines over a compressed timeline. That supply does not exist.Skilled semiconductor engineers and fab technicians are already in short supply globally. Samsung, Intel, and TSMC are all struggling to staff their existing expansions in the US, Germany, and Japan. A TeraFab buildout at the scale Musk describes would require a workforce that simply has not been trained yet.Construction materials, ultrapure water systems, power infrastructure, and chemical supply chains for photoresists and process gases are all similarly constrained. Building one leading-edge fab takes four to five years under normal circumstances. Building 126 of them simultaneously is not a scheduling problem. It is a civilizational-scale industrial mobilization.What TeraFab actually is right nowThe $20 billion announced at launch is barely enough to build a single 7nm-class logic fab, a process node that TSMC commercialized in 2018. Tesla is currently hiring a semiconductor fabs construction manager, which suggests the project is in very early planning stages.The gap between where TeraFab starts and where Musk says it is going is not a gap that gets bridged through ambition or capital efficiency. It is a gap that would require a coordinated, multi-decade effort across governments, sovereign wealth funds, equipment makers, and capital markets simultaneously, all betting on a single private venture run by someone with seven other major companies competing for his attention.Musk's ambitions for TeraFab are also somewhat self-serving. Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI are all voracious consumers of compute. Vertical integration into chipmaking would reduce dependency on TSMC and Nvidia, both of which represent real strategic risks for his businesses. That framing makes TeraFab rational as a hedge. As a plan to reshape the global semiconductor industry, the numbers do not come close to adding up.The $20 billion is real. The $5 trillion is the actual cost of what Musk says he wants. The distance between those two figures is the most important fact in this story.---Join Newnex - the exclusive platform for institutional VCs to syndicate, co-invest and follow-on privately without intermediaries. <a href="http://www.newnex.io/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(37, 99, 235);">www.newnex.io</a>

Musk's TeraFab Could Cost $5 Trillion. Here's Why That Number Is Almost Certainly Right.

Money is quietly changing form. It is moving from paper and metal into entirely digital representations that travel at the speed of the internet. Yet what appears as a simple balance on a screen can mean very different things depending on who issues it, who guarantees it, and how it functions. Today, three systems define the landscape of digital money: traditional digital banking, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Each has distinct characteristics, technologies, and implications for the future of finance. Digital Banking: The Money We Already UseWhen a person checks their bank account, the numbers they see are digital banking money - an entry in the database of a commercial bank. This money is the bank’s promise to pay. It functions smoothly because banks are regulated and supervised, and because deposit insurance provides a safety net. However, this money ultimately depends on the financial health of private institutions. If a bank fails, deposits are insured only up to a certain limit. Digital banking money is therefore a claim on a bank, not on the state. Digital banking dominates everyday transactions - salaries, utility payments, credit cards and transfers. It is efficient and trusted but not instantaneous across borders, as transfers rely on layers of intermediaries through systems like SWIFT or SEPA. Stablecoins: Private Digital Money with Public AmbitionsStablecoins are digital tokens designed to maintain a stable value, often pegged to a traditional currency such as the US dollar or the euro. Issued by private companies, stablecoins are backed by reserves - typically cash and short-term government securities - held to mirror the value of the tokens in circulation. The goal is stability, making stablecoins usable for payments, remittances and trading. Well-known examples include Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and euro-based versions such as Tether Euro (EURT) and Circle’s Euro Coin (EUROC). These coins operate on public blockchains such as Ethereum, enabling instant global transfers without relying on banking hours or geographical limits. The stablecoin sector has grown rapidly. Global stablecoin transaction volume rose from about 3.5 trillion US dollars in 2023 to over 5.5 trillion in 2024. Market capitalisation stood near 230 billion dollars in early 2025 and is projected to reach two trillion dollars by 2028. Stablecoins are now a key element in crypto markets and cross-border finance, but their reliance on private issuers raises questions about transparency, auditing, and regulatory oversight. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, coming into effect in 2025-2026, introduces strict requirements on reserve management and supervision. Alongside, major European financial institutions are developing euro-denominated stablecoins under regulatory frameworks. DWS, a leading German asset manager, has announced a regulated euro stablecoin to launch in 2025, and a consortium of European banks is working on G7 currency-pegged stablecoins, including a euro version. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC): The Public’s Digital CashA central bank digital currency, or CBDC, is a digital form of state-issued money - a direct liability of the central bank. It is the digital equivalent of cash: fully guaranteed, universally accepted, and risk-free. When someone holds CBDC, they hold money issued by the state itself rather than a promise from a commercial bank. The motivation for CBDCs is not to imitate cryptocurrencies but to modernise official money for a digital world. They ensure that public money remains relevant in an economy increasingly dominated by private payment systems and global technology firms. CBDCs could make domestic and international payments faster and cheaper, provide resilience if commercial systems fail, and allow governments to distribute support or benefits directly to citizens. The Chinese digital yuan (e-CNY) is currently the largest pilot, with over 7 trillion yuan - nearly 1 trillion US dollars - transacted in test regions. India is developing the digital rupee for both retail and wholesale use. The European Central Bank is preparing the digital euro, now in its design phase, with pilot issuance expected around 2027–2028. To prevent disruption to the banking system, the ECB plans to limit how much CBDC each person can hold and use a “waterfall mechanism” to move excess funds back into bank deposits automatically. Most CBDCs do not rely on public blockchains. Instead, they use permissioned distributed ledger technology or secure centralised systems operated by the central bank and approved financial institutions. This approach combines the traceability and speed of blockchain with the control and compliance required for monetary policy. Why Three Systems?At first glance, CBDCs, stablecoins and digital banking money seem similar: all are digital, and all show as numbers on a screen. But the difference lies in who stands behind the promise. With bank deposits, the promise comes from a commercial bank. With stablecoins, it comes from a private issuer managing reserves. With a CBDC, the promise comes directly from the central bank and by extension from the state. The first carries some credit risk, the second depends on private audits, and the third is as secure as the sovereign itself. Each system also serves different goals. Stablecoins promote innovation and global connectivity. CBDCs safeguard public trust and monetary sovereignty. Digital banking remains central to lending, investment, and financial intermediation. Their coexistence represents not competition but an evolution of money into distinct but connected layers. Timeline of Key Developments2014–2017: Bitcoin and early cryptocurrencies popularise blockchain-based value transfer.2018–2020: USDT, USDC, and other stablecoins gain widespread use in crypto trading.2020: China begins large-scale pilot of the digital yuan (e-CNY).2021–2023: Central banks accelerate CBDC research.2023: The European Central Bank confirms the preparation phase of the digital euro.2024–2025: MiCA regulation introduces stablecoin supervision in Europe.2025: DWS and partner institutions launch regulated euro-stablecoin.2027–2028: Target window for potential digital euro rollout. The Future LandscapeAs digital money matures, users will have multiple choices. Bank accounts will remain the core of credit and finance. Stablecoins will continue to dominate blockchain ecosystems and fast international payments. CBDCs will ensure access to secure, state-issued money for everyone in a digital economy. The interaction among these systems will shape how individuals, businesses, and governments use and think about money. The distinction between them may seem technical, yet it reflects one of the most significant changes in financial history: the redefinition of what counts as “money” itself. Whether issued by a bank, a private company, or the central bank, the key question for users will increasingly be not how digital their money is, but who stands behind it.---Newnex is venture capital made efficient - VCs, LPs and Startups connect with verified peers and co-invest and raise directly and privately with references and without intermediaries. <a href="https://newnex.io" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Get Access to Newnex</a> <a href="https://newnex.io" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://newnex.io</a>

The Future of Money: How Stablecoins, CBDCs and Digital Banking Are Redefining the Financial System

Despite concerns of a click-based collapse, Google’s ad revenues are rising with AI, even as publishers feel the squeeze In the age of AI-powered search, a paradox has emerged at the heart of the digital ecosystem. While many predicted that generative AI would undermine Google's lucrative ad business by reducing clicks, the tech giant's financial performance suggests the opposite. As Google's ad revenues continue to grow, the broader web, including publishers who provide the content, is experiencing a sharp decline in traffic. This raises a fundamental question about who benefits—and who loses—in an AI-first future. Google’s earnings defy the doomsayersGoogle's Q2 2025 earnings report provided a clear-eyed view of its performance, revealing that AI integration is bolstering, not beating, its advertising business. Parent company Alphabet reported robust results, with ad revenues up 10% year-over-year to $71 billion, exceeding analyst expectations. CEO Sundar Pichai directly attributed this strength to the company's "strategic investments in AI and video".The key to this success lies in Google's ability to monetize its new AI features, such as AI Overviews and AI Mode. Despite the shift toward instant, AI-generated answers, Google claims that AI Overviews generate ad revenue at a comparable rate to traditional search results. It achieves this by conducting controlled experiments and measuring overall business value rather than focusing solely on individual clicks. The rising engagement fueling commercial queriesGoogle reports that its AI-powered features are driving higher user engagement and query volume. In AI Mode, users ask questions that are up to twice as long as standard search queries. This creates new opportunities for advertisers, as the system can identify "faceted" or layered commercial intent within a single, complex question. For instance, a search for "how to fix a green pool" could trigger contextually relevant ads for "pool vacuum cleaners".This automation has proven effective. Early beta tests of "AI Max for Search" have resulted in an average 27% increase in conversions for advertisers, highlighting the shift toward AI-powered targeting solutions. A grim reality for publishersWhile Google thrives, the publishers who create the content that fuels Google's AI are struggling. With AI Overviews providing direct answers, the incentive for users to click on external links has plummeted. A Pew Research Center study of U.S. Google users found that only 1% clicked a link to a page summarized in an AI Overview. For publishers who depend on search traffic for ad revenue, this spells a crisis.Recent data paints a stark picture:<ul><li>Massive traffic loss:&nbsp;U.S. publishers reported an average decline of 10% in search referral traffic during May and June 2025. For non-news brands, the median drop was 14%.</li><li>Dramatic click-through rate declines:&nbsp;A study submitted to the UK's competition watchdog found that when an AI Overview is present, publishers experience a 47.5% drop in click-through rate on desktop.</li><li>Industry revenue at risk:&nbsp;Research suggests the industry could lose up to $2 billion in annual ad revenue from the reduction in traffic caused by AI Overviews.</li></ul> The walled garden expandsGoogle's defense is that it sends "valuable traffic" to publishers and that AI features create new discovery opportunities. But critics, including a U.S. trade association, have accused Google of "trampling" the open web and creating a "walled garden built on monopoly profits". By embedding ads into AI-generated answers and taking revenue without sharing it with the content creators, Google reinforces its own dominant position while starving the ecosystem it relies on. The situation leaves publishers scrambling for alternative revenue strategies, including focusing on direct traffic, building subscriptions, and leveraging other platforms like Google Discover. For Google, however, the ad revenue engine is running stronger than ever. The AI paradox reveals a stark reality: what is a boon for the tech giant may prove to be a bust for the rest of the web.---Join NENWEX - the verified institutional VC-LP Network to collaborate and syndicate without intermediaries - join and get verified now <a href="http://www.newnex.io" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">www.newnex.io</a>

The AI Paradox: How Google is Thriving While the Web Withers

In an era where constant connectivity is essential, Direct-to-Cell (DTC) satellite technology has emerged as a groundbreaking solution to bridge the digital divide. Unlike traditional cellular networks reliant on terrestrial infrastructure like cell towers, DTC technology enables standard mobile devices to connect directly to satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). This innovation promises to eliminate dead zones, providing seamless communication across even the most remote locations, from mountains and oceans to deserts and disaster-hit regions. Starlink: Leading the ChargeSpaceX’s Starlink has been a trailblazer in satellite communication, and its move into Direct-to-Cell technology marks a significant leap. By equipping its satellite constellation with DTC capabilities, Starlink aims to deliver texting, calling, and data browsing services directly to unmodified mobile phones.Recent launches have further strengthened this initiative; on November 23, 2024, SpaceX took a significant step forward by deploying 13 DTC-capable satellites as part of a broader network expansion. This launch, executed from the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California using a Falcon 9 rocket, highlights Starlink’s aggressive efforts to enhance connectivity. These satellites, part of the second-generation (Gen2) constellation, bring enhanced transceivers and larger antennas specifically designed for DTC capabilities. What These Satellites Bring to the TableThe 13 DTC-capable satellites are engineered to support:<ul><li>Text Messaging: Sending and receiving SMS messages directly from a satellite, even in areas with no cell towers.</li><li>Voice Calls: Supporting clear and reliable voice communication in remote regions.</li><li>Data Services: Providing basic web browsing and email capabilities, with plans to expand as the technology matures.</li></ul>These features are crucial for connecting remote areas and providing a reliable backup during emergencies when terrestrial networks fail. This milestone reinforces Starlink's commitment to bridging the global digital divide. Integration with Existing ServicesStarlink’s collaboration with T-Mobile plays a pivotal role in this initiative. Their partnership promises free emergency texting via satellite in the coming months, enabling lifesaving communication in critical scenarios. By integrating these services into existing mobile plans, Starlink ensures that users can access satellite connectivity without additional hardware or complex configurations. A Milestone in Satellite DeploymentThe November 23 launch utilized a reusable Falcon 9 rocket, reducing costs and enabling rapid deployment. This launch is part of Starlink’s larger plan to deploy thousands of DTC-capable satellites, creating a dense network that minimizes latency and provides continuous global coverage. Alternative Offerings: The Growing CompetitionWhile Starlink has garnered much attention, other companies are stepping up with their own innovations in Direct-to-Cell technology:<ul><li>AST SpaceMobile: This company is building a space-based cellular broadband network that directly connects to regular smartphones. With successful trials like a two-way call using their BlueWalker 3 satellite, AST SpaceMobile has formed partnerships with major telecom providers, including AT&amp;T and Verizon, to extend coverage to underserved regions.</li><li>Lynk Global: Known for being the first to send a text message from space to a standard mobile phone, Lynk Global is planning continuous global coverage by 2025. Its "cell tower in space" concept aims to provide reliable connectivity even in the most remote areas.</li><li>Iridium Communications: A veteran in satellite communication, Iridium is developing "Project Stardust," set to launch in 2026. This initiative focuses on 5G messaging, IoT applications, and emergency communications, leveraging non-terrestrial networks (NTN) standards for greater compatibility.</li><li>Apple and Globalstar: Apple’s collaboration with Globalstar brings satellite-based emergency messaging to iPhones, a feature already active in the iPhone 14 series and newer models. While currently limited to emergencies, this partnership highlights the potential for consumer devices to integrate satellite connectivity.</li><li>Google and Skylo: Google has joined the fray with satellite messaging capabilities on its Pixel 9 series, in partnership with Skylo. This feature ensures communication remains possible in off-grid scenarios, targeting adventurers and emergency use cases.</li></ul> The Future of Direct-to-Cell TechnologyAs the technology matures, several trends and developments are likely to shape the future:<ol><li>Enhanced Bandwidth and Scalability: Continued advancements in satellite technology will improve data capacity and reliability, allowing DTC networks to serve larger populations and support data-intensive applications.</li><li>Integration with 5G and IoT: The synergy between DTC satellites and terrestrial 5G networks could create a seamless global communication ecosystem. Applications in IoT—such as smart agriculture, logistics, and disaster management—will benefit immensely.</li><li>Affordability and Accessibility: As competition increases, the cost of satellite connectivity is expected to decrease, making it more accessible to consumers and enterprises alike.</li><li>Global Regulatory Alignment: Overcoming regulatory challenges will be critical for the widespread adoption of DTC services. Collaboration among countries and telecom providers will play a key role.</li><li>Hybrid Networks: Future connectivity solutions are likely to integrate satellites with terrestrial infrastructure, leveraging the strengths of both systems to provide uninterrupted service.</li></ol> Direct-to-Cell technology is set to redefine global connectivity, ensuring that no location is too remote or underserved. As companies like Starlink, AST SpaceMobile, Lynk Global, and others push the boundaries of innovation, the dream of universal connectivity is becoming an achievable reality. The next decade promises to be transformative, connecting humanity in ways never before imagined.

Goodbye Dead Zones: How Direct-to-Cell Satellites Are Redefining Global Connectivity

Assaf Rappaport, CEO of Wiz, recently emphasized the fragmented nature of the cybersecurity market at the Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference, predicting significant consolidation in the near future. He highlighted that the current landscape, with numerous niche players and specialized solutions, is unsustainable. Rappaport foresees a wave of mergers and acquisitions aimed at integrating these diverse offerings into more comprehensive platforms. Let's delve deeper into understanding what makes Wiz an acquisition play for Google's cloud business. Wiz’s Growth and Market Position Wiz is positioning itself at the forefront of this anticipated consolidation. The company has reached $350 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and boasts a $12 billion valuation. Wiz is actively pursuing acquisitions, such as the recent purchase of Gem Security for $350 million, and is gearing up for a future IPO. Serving over 40% of the Fortune 100 companies, Wiz’s extensive client base underscores its competitive strength and market leadership. Comprehensive Security Platform Wiz offers a comprehensive cloud security platform that differentiates itself from competitors through several key features:<ol><li>Cloud Security Posture Management (CSPM): Provides visibility into cloud environments, detects misconfigurations, and offers remediation recommendations.</li><li>Cloud Workload Protection (CWP): Secures cloud workloads by detecting vulnerabilities, malware, and ensuring compliance with security policies.</li><li>Wiz Runtime Sensor: Provides real-time monitoring and protection for cloud environments.</li><li>AI Security Posture Management (AI-SPM): Uses artificial intelligence to analyze security data and automate responses to potential threats.</li></ol> Pricing Model Wiz’s pricing model is designed to be flexible and scalable, catering to the needs of various enterprise customers. It typically includes:<ul><li>Subscription-Based Model: Customers pay for access to the platform's features and services on an ongoing basis.</li><li>Usage-Based Pricing: Costs can vary based on the number of cloud assets monitored, data volume processed, or specific features utilized.</li><li>Enterprise Agreements: Customized agreements for large organizations, potentially including discounts for long-term commitments or higher usage volumes.</li><li>Value-Added Services: Additional services such as advanced security features, premium support, and professional services for deployment and integration.</li></ul> Competitors Wiz faces competition from several prominent players in the cybersecurity market, each offering various strengths and specializations:<ol><li>Palo Alto Networks: Known for its comprehensive suite of cybersecurity solutions, including network security, cloud security, and endpoint protection. Palo Alto Networks is a leader in integrating AI and machine learning to enhance threat detection and response capabilities.</li><li>CrowdStrike: Specializes in endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyberattack response. CrowdStrike's Falcon platform is renowned for its real-time threat detection and cloud-native architecture.</li><li>Zscaler: Focuses on cloud security and secure internet access, offering solutions that protect users and applications regardless of their location. Zscaler’s Zero Trust Exchange is a standout product in securing internet and SaaS applications.</li><li>Microsoft Azure Security Center: Provides integrated security monitoring and policy management across Azure environments. It offers robust threat protection and compliance management tools for Azure cloud services.</li><li>McAfee: Offers a range of security solutions for endpoints, networks, and cloud environments. McAfee’s MVISION platform integrates multiple security functions to provide comprehensive protection.</li></ol> Strategic Growth and Future OutlookWiz is focused on rapid innovation and customer-centric growth. The company plans to add 400 employees globally in 2024, enhancing its ability to serve a growing customer base. With a goal of reaching a billion dollars in sales, Wiz is set to continue its aggressive expansion and innovation strategy. Rappaport’s vision of consolidation in the cybersecurity market aligns with Wiz’s strategic moves, positioning the company to lead the integration of diverse security solutions into a unified platform. This approach aims to simplify security management for enterprises and provide a more robust defense against evolving cyber threats. Being positioned as a single unified platform for providing security is making it an attractive integration opportunity for data center providers and it is complementary to Google Cloud's offerings.

Amidst Google acquisition rumours, Wiz CEO Assaf Rappaport Foresees Consolidation in the Cybersecurity Market

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