India to become the 2nd largest economy in 50 years - Goldman Sachs

The India opportunity:

India's GDP reached a significant milestone of $3.75 trillion in 2023, solidifying its position as the fifth largest economy globally. Additionally, India surpassed China to become the world's most populous nation. 

Goldman Sachs has now projected that India will surpass the United States and become the 2nd largest economy by 2075. 

Country - GDP (population)

China - $57 trillion (1.2 bn)

India - $52.5 trillion (1.5 -1.6 bn)

USA - $51.5 trillion (0.375 bn)

While the United States is expected to maintain the highest per capita income among the 3 economies, due to its similar GDP size but significantly lower population, India and China are expected to experience dramatic growth over the next five decades. This positions India as a land of immense opportunity.

Goldman Sachs' finds several positive drivers behind India's projected growth:

Population

With approximately 67% of the population below the retirement age of 64 in 2023, India is in a favourable position to leverage on its demographic dividend. Over the next 20 years, India has a unique window during which dependency ratios is project to decline. Furthermore, the demographic transition in India is expected to be more gradual compared to other Asian countries, leading to increased savings rates among the population.

Capital Investment

The Indian government has prioritized infrastructure development over the past decade and this trend is expected to continue into the future. This positions India favourably for private investor and foreign direct investment participation, contributing to the nation's progress.

Domestic-demand Driven Economy

Unlike many other Asian countries, India has a robust domestic-demand driven economy. In 2023, domestic consumption accounted for approximately 50% of India's economic activity, and this figure is projected to grow. This reduced reliance on exports for economic growth is a significant advantage.

India's Private Sector

The private sector plays a crucial role in India's growth story, contributing to both physical and digital infrastructure development. Companies such as Reliance, Tata, Wipro, and Adani are already well-positioned, with more innovative companies and conglomerates expected to thrive across various sectors, from services to digital innovation.

The Digital Economy

India's software capabilities are widely recognized, but lesser-known internationally but highly impactful innovations such as the Aadhar card (digital biometric identification) and UPI (digital payments) are changing the country profoundly. Such innovations by both the government and the private industry at a billion population scale will accelerate the efficiency and effectiveness of India's growth.

Despite the immense positive outlook, challenges remain. The key ingredient for India's success lies in productivity growth and the success in bringing more population into the real economy. To achieve this, it is essential to encourage greater workforce participation, especially by women. Furthermore, innovative approaches are necessary to develop and up-skill the Indian workforce to meet the dynamic requirements of the economy.

The remarkable growth prospects of India and the on-going transition in its economy present an incredible opportunity for both domestic and international actors to participate in the India growth story. The projected trajectory of India's GDP, coupled with its favourable demographic dividend, investment focus, domestic-demand driven economy, thriving private sector, and digital innovation potential, places the country as a promising destination for global investments, collaborations, and engagement.

---

Praveen Paranjothi is the CEO of Newnex, the digital-led VC, and the driving force behind Startup Europe India Network and India Techspora.